The Alabama heat surges before rounds of weekend storms
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We've transitioned from spring showers to summer sizzle as we finish out the week. An unsettled pattern returns for the weekend. We'll see periods of heavy storms rolling through, but it won't be a constant downpour 鈥� expect breaks in the action too.
Check the video forecast for the latest.
A LOOK BACK AT RECENT RAINFALL
Birmingham has measured rain on 12 of the last 14 days for a grand total of 7.45 inches since April 30. Huntsville has 5.29 inches in that two-week period, and Tuscaloosa soaked up a whopping 9.52 inches. All of this rain has alleviated any drought concerns across Alabama.
A SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN
Finally drying out! After the recent wet spell, we're looking forward to summer-like heat with only a small chance of significant rain before the weekend.
As the forecast trend drier, it will also get hotter. Highs will soar into the upper 80s on both Thursday and Friday. A few communities are likely to touch 90 degrees for the first time this year.
But don't get too used to the dry heat! Our weather pattern takes a turn late Friday, bringing back periods of unsettled conditions throughout the weekend.
HEAVY STORMS AHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
Severe weather will be ongoing to our north during the day Friday. Our next round of storms will arrive in the pre-dawn hours Saturday.
We will be monitoring a frontal boundary that will approach the state from the north late Friday into Saturday. Along and ahead of this boundary, there will likely be a line of storms.
The Storm Prediction Center highlights a low risk that storms will stay strong enough to produce damaging winds and hail in addition to frequent lightning and heavy rain as they move into Alabama from the north.
This is round one of what could be multiple rounds of storms through the weekend.
Round #1 (High forecast confidence): Friday night through sunrise Saturday 鈥�
Intense storms in Tennessee will spread south into North Alabama moving as far south as Cullman, Hamilton, Smith Lake, Snead, Gadsden, and Centre by early Saturday morning. There will be some risk of strong winds, hail, heavy rain and lightning with those storms.
The next round of storms Saturday afternoon will be highly dependent on what happens with the morning round. If the boundary pushes well south of our area, the chance of afternoon storms across our part of the state will be lower. The Storm Prediction Center highlights much of the state with a marginal risk for storms that could produce damaging winds and hail in addition to frequent lightning and heavy rain Saturday afternoon into the early evening. We will also have to watch to see how worked over the atmosphere is from the first round of storms. This is what we are calling round 2.
Round #2 (Low forecast confidence): Saturday afternoon to Saturday evening 鈥�
The leftover boundary (rain-cooled air) from the first round will serve as the kickoff point for the second round. Often, we will see a gap of 30 to 50 miles between the point where the first round ends and the second round begins, so this second wave will depend on the performance of the first one.
If the boundary is still hanging around our part of the state on Sunday, we may get a third and final round of heavy storms Sunday afternoon. As a wave of energy rides along the boundary, a cluster of storms may be able to tap into the unstable air and briefly turn heavy.
Round #3 (low forecast confidence): Sunday afternoon 鈥�
Another disturbance will blow in from the northwest and ride along the boundary Sunday afternoon. This could mean one more wave of heavy thunderstorms. This round鈥檚 impact will depend heavily on where the boundary is at that point and also how worked over the atmosphere is from rain and storms on Saturday.
While both Saturday and Sunday will feature a chance of some heavy storms, it will not rain all day on either Saturday or Sunday. Away from those storms, the weather will just be seasonably hot in North and Central Alabama with highs in the 80s to near 90 degrees and morning lows down in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Understand that setups like this can be tricky to time out and that's why we don't have super high confidence in the timing and placement of storms just yet. We will continue to monitor for any changes in the coming days and we can be a lot more specific as we get closer to the weekend.
LOOKING LONGER RANGE
Looking past the weekend storms, early next week in Alabama will bring hot and humid conditions. While isolated thunderstorms are possible, we don't see any signals for widespread or meaningful rain to start next week. What you will notice, though, are highs approaching 90 degrees! It will feel like summer again through midweek.
It will also stay muggy through midweek, but there will be a cool front in the area that brings a better chance of storms again by Wednesday.
Behind that front, we should get one final breath of drier, more pleasant weather before persistent heat and humidity of summertime begins ahead of Memorial Day on the 26th.
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