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AND ALSO ALERT DAYS COMING UP IN THE NEAR FUTURE. MARCH. NOT AN UNUSUAL TIME FOR US TO BE EXPERIENCING THAT ACTIVE WEATHER. AND WE’VE GOT A LOT TO TALK ABOUT. YEAH, SEVERE WEATHER SEASON. ON THE UPTICK. IT’S BEEN A WHILE SINCE WE’VE HAD SOMETHING OF THIS MAGNITUDE. AND THEN TO HAVE THREE DAYS BACK TO BACK, IT’S NOT UNPRECEDENTED, BUT IT IS A LITTLE BIT UNUSUAL. SO LET’S START WITH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ON THURSDAY. THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY WHAT I WOULD CALL A SCARY DAY, IT’S JUST THAT WE’RE ANTICIPATING A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL AND SOME STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY IS NOW AN ALERT DAY BECAUSE OF WHAT HAPPENS AFTER 9 P.M. IF YOU MOVED SOMETHING TO FRIDAY THINKING, WELL, YOU SAID THE WEATHER IS GOING TO BE FINE, IT IS GOING TO BE FINE DURING THE DAY. IT’S FRIDAY NIGHT, THAT’S THE PROBLEM. AND THEN SATURDAY IS THE ONE THAT WE’VE BEEN WATCHING FOR A LONG TIME. AND THAT’S WHERE THE WEATHER COULD GET REALLY, REALLY NASTY. SO BEFORE WE GET INTO THE FORECAST DETAILS, I WANT TO SHOW YOU WHAT’S GOING INTO THE FORECAST ITSELF. THIS IS CALLED AN ANALOG AND IT’S EXACTLY WHAT IT SOUNDS LIKE, SOMETHING THAT’S ANALOGOUS OR SIMILAR. SO WE’RE LOOKING AT PAST EVENTS THAT LOOKED LIKE THIS ON WEATHER MAPS. AND THEN USING THAT DATA TO MAKE SOME PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE. SO LOOKING AT THE PAST TO HELP US SEE WHAT THE FUTURE COULD BE LIKE, SIMILAR WEATHER EVENTS LIKE THIS PRODUCED CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS AROUND THE SOUTH. AND WHAT YOU’RE SEEING ON THE COLORS OF THE MAP HERE, THAT’S THE NUMBER OF ANALOGS THAT SHOWED SEVERE WEATHER HAPPENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS HAIL. IT’S WIND, IT’S TORNADOES. IT’S SORT OF LOOKING AT IT IN A BROAD BRUSH. SO MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, TENNESSEE, GEORGIA. THIS IS A CLASSIC SETUP. NOW LET’S LOOK AT IT SPECIFICALLY FROM THE TORNADO THREAT. YOU KNOW WE’RE LOWER ON THE COLOR SCALE HERE. BUT THAT IS STILL A HEALTHY SIGNAL FOR WHAT COULD BE SOME LONG TRACK OR DAMAGING TORNADOES OVER THE WEEKEND, MAINLY ON SATURDAY. BUT ALL THIS COMES DOWN TO BALANCE AS THESE STORM SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THERE’S A LOT OF INSTABILITY THAT MOVES INTO THEM, AND THERE’S ALSO A LOT OF WIND SHEAR. AND I LIKE TO CALL IT THIS WAY. ITS FUEL AND IT’S MUSCLE. AND IF THE TWO OF THEM COMBINE WELL, AND IT’S YOU GET THE RIGHT FUEL FOR THE RIGHT ENGINE, SO TO SPEAK, THEN YOU CAN GET SOME REALLY NASTY STORMS. SO THIS IS THE FUEL OR SOMETIMES WE CALL IT CAPE CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY. IT REALLY BRIGHTENS UP AND GETS HOT HERE IN MISSISSIPPI ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA, THE CAPE NOT QUITE AS HIGH. THE INSTABILITY NOT QUITE AS HIGH, BUT AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CAPE SLOWLY INCREASES, I THINK THEY’RE GOING TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD BALANCE. THIS IS WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE IN THE WIND, ABOUT 5000FT ABOVE OUR HEADS. AND WATCH WHAT GOES ON TO THE SOUTH. IT REALLY STARTS TO RAMP UP AND GETS INTO THAT THICKER AREA OF INSTABILITY IN MISSISSIPPI, THEN INTO WEST ALABAMA IN THE AFTERNOON. AND AS THAT BIG BURST OF STRONG WINDS ABOUT A MILE UP MOVES OVERHEAD, THAT’S WHERE SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD COME FROM. SO WE PUT THOSE TWO THINGS TOGETHER. THE ENERGY HELICITY INDEX BECOMES A THING. AND WHEN THINGS ARE BALANCED OUT, WE GET UP HERE ON THE HIGH END OF THAT, THE WEATHER GETS PRETTY NASTY. TAYLOR LET’S TALK MORE ABOUT THE TIMING AND IMPACTS. SO WE’VE GOT A LOT TO BREAK DOWN HERE. I WANT TO BREAK IT DOWN FOR YOU DAY BY DAY. LET’S START WITH THE RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS TOMORROW. TOMORROW IS AN IMPACT DAY. WE’RE WATCHING THE WINDOW FROM 7 A.M. TO 6 P.M. IT REALLY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON PROBLEM. A FEW SCATTERED STORMS THAT COULD BRIEFLY TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WE’VE GOT A MARGINAL RISK THAT COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALABAMA. THIS IS A LOWER END RISK FOR TOMORROW, AND WE’RE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BREAKING IT DOWN FOR YOU. THIS IS 9 A.M. WE’RE STARTING TO SEE A FEW OF THOSE STORMS DEVELOP. SOMETHING I WANT TO POINT OUT HERE IS IT’S NOT GOING TO RAIN OR STORM EVERYWHERE ALL DAY LONG. IT’S JUST WHERE THOSE STORMS DO FORM. THEY COULD BRIEFLY TURN STRONG. THIS IS LUNCHTIME MONITORING FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THEN BY THE LATE EVENING, JUST A COUPLE SCATTERED STORMS. STILL WITH US. IT IS NOT AN ALL DAY STORMY TYPE SITUATION, JUST A FEW PASSING THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD TURN STRONG. THEN WE’VE GOT THAT ALERT DAY ON FRIDAY, AND I WANT TO POINT OUT THAT MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET. IT’S GOING TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY. WE’RE GOING TO BE BREEZY, MORNING TEMPERATURE, VERY MILD IN THE 50S. BY THE AFTERNOON, SOME SPOTS TOUCHING 80. IT’S LATE AT NIGHT THAT WE BRING IN THAT ALERT WEATHER WHERE WE SEE THAT POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. THIS IS THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SATURDAY. THERE IS AN ENHANCED LEVEL THREE OUT OF FIVE RISK FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST ALABAMA. A FEW STORMS COULD MOVE INTO OUR STATE, MAINTAINING THEIR STRENGTH AND BRINGING THE RISK OF HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS. CAN’T RULE OUT A FEW TORNADO WARNINGS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY ON SATURDAY. WE’LL HAVE TO WATCH THESE STORMS CAREFULLY, AND THIS IS ONE OF THOSE OVERNIGHT THREATS WHERE IT’S REALLY IMPORTANT YOU’VE GOT RELIABLE WAYS TO HEAR WARNINGS THAT COULD WAKE YOU UP. IF YOU’RE SLEEPING. THEN JASON WAS TELLING US ABOUT THAT SATURDAY EVENT. THAT’S KIND OF OUR MAIN EVENT. WE’VE GOT TO BE CAUTIOUS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT SATURDAY IS THE DAY WHERE WE REALLY NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR. IT’S BEEN A WHILE SINCE WE’VE HAD A SEVERE WEATHER DAY HERE IN ALABAMA. DON’T PANIC, JUST STAY INFORMED. MAKE SURE YOU’RE CHECKING BACK ON THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO GET THE LATEST INFO. MAKE SURE YOU’RE LETTING YOUR FRIENDS AND FAMILY KNOW THAT THEY NEED TO BE WEATHER AWARE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GO OVER YOUR TORNADO PLAN JUST IN CASE. MAKE SURE YOU KNOW WHERE YOU WOULD HEAD. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION. AND THEN, OF COURSE, HAVE THOSE RELIABLE WAYS TO HEAR WARNINGS AND OUTDOOR SIREN IS NOT A RELIABLE WAY TO HEAR WARNINGS. IT CAN BE ONE OF YOUR WAYS, BUT ALSO MAKE SURE YOU’VE GOT EITHER A NO WEATHER RADIO, AN APP ON YOUR PHONE, THE �������� 13 WEATHER APP WILL LET YOU KNOW IF BAD WEATHER IS HEADED YOUR WAY. ENHANCED RISK FOR SATURDAY ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE STATE OF ALABAMA. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THOUGH, IF THIS IS UPGRADED TO A HIGHER THREAT IN THE COMING DAYS. SO WE’LL BE WATCHING THIS CAREFULLY. THIS COULD TURN INTO A MODERATE RISK OR EVEN A HIGH RISK. WE’RE GOING TO WATCH IT CAREFULLY. OF COURSE, WE’LL PASS THAT INFO TO YOU AS SOON AS SOMETHING LIKE THAT HAPPENS. BUT FOR NOW, ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR POSSIBLE. WE’RE TALKING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, A FEW TORNADOES THAT COULD BE STRONG TORNADOES. AND SATURDAY IS ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE MUCH OF THE DAY YOU’RE GOING TO HAVE TO BE WEATHER AWARE. WE’VE GOT THESE WIDE WINDOWS OF WIND THAT SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR. SO WE’RE TALKING ALICEVILLE NEWBERN TUSCALOOSA ARLEY 11 A.M. TO 7 P.M. BIRMINGHAM CALERA SPRINGVILLE GADSDEN 12 P.M. TO 10 P.M. PIEDMONT ANNISTON ASHLAND 3 P.M. TO 1 A.M. SO OF COURSE WE’LL HAVE THE WHOLE WEATHER TEAM HERE FOR YOU THROUGHOUT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TRACKING THESE SYSTEMS