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When will mortgage rates go down?

Mortgage rates have reached 23-year highs. Is there an end in sight to rising rates?

When will mortgage rates go down?

Mortgage rates have reached 23-year highs. Is there an end in sight to rising rates?

*** new study shows that two out of five Americans think they would need to win the lotto to become homeowners. And I'm not talking about *** scratch off lotto either. I'm talking about hitting the jackpot. The research conducted by one poll on behalf of Debby Holmes found that 26% of respondents believe they'd need to inherit money from someone to ever own *** home. And another 19% of respondents believe they'd need to marry someone rich with these interest rates the way they are. I understand why some people polled even believe they would never be able to afford *** home. The housing market has changed rapidly during the past few years and more than half of those polled said they believe the market is unstable, but 46% of people are hopeful and believe that things will level out within the next 2 to 5 years. Those that dream of being able to buy *** home in the next few years are prioritizing *** few things including affordable monthly payments. The home being the right size for now and for the future and the location being ideal for their family needs. I get it. What's the point of *** perfect home in *** place you don't want to be?
Updated: 7:28 AM CDT Sep 1, 2023
Editorial Standards 鈸�
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When will mortgage rates go down?

Mortgage rates have reached 23-year highs. Is there an end in sight to rising rates?

Updated: 7:28 AM CDT Sep 1, 2023
Editorial Standards 鈸�
PHNjcmlwdCB0eXBlPSJ0ZXh0L2phdmFzY3JpcHQiIHNyYz1odHRwczovL3N0YXRpYy5teWZpbmFuY2UuY29tL3dpZGdldC9teUZpbmFuY2Vfdmlld3BvcnRfZGV0ZWN0aW9uLmpzPjwvc2NyaXB0PjxzY3JpcHQgYXN5bmMgdHlwZT0idGV4dC9qYXZhc2NyaXB0Ij5teWZpV2F0Y2hXaWRnZXQoJ215ZmlXaWRnZXRfMTUnKTtteWZpV2F0Y2hXaWRnZXQoJ215ZmlXaWRnZXRfOScpO215ZmlXYXRjaFdpZGdldCgnbXlmaVdpZGdldF8xJyk7PC9zY3JpcHQ+Aly J. Yale is a contributing writer for Hearst, focusing largely on housing, real estate, and mortgages. She loves demystifying these sometimes complex topics and helping consumers make informed decisions about their finances. In her 15 years as a professional writer and editor, her work has been published in Forbes, Buy Side from the Wall Street Journal, Business Insider, Money, CBS News, US News & World Report, Fortune, and The Miami Herald. She has a bachelor鈥檚 degree in radio-TV-film and news-editorial journalism from the Bob Schieffer College of Communication at Texas Christian University and is a member of the National Association of Real Estate Editors. She lives by her reward-earning credit card and is holding onto her 2.75% mortgage rate for dear life.Hearst Television participates in various affiliate marketing programs, which means we may get paid commissions on editorially chosen products purchased through our links to retailer sites. This may influence which products we write about and where those products appear on the site, but it does not affect our recommendations or advice, which are grounded in research.Mobile app users, click here for the best viewing experience.Mortgage rates have been making headlines lately 鈥� and not in the good way. On Aug. 17, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reached its highest point in 20 years, according to Freddie Mac.When you throw in the cost of the actual home 鈥� the average sale price now sits at $495,100 鈥� homeownership isn鈥檛 easy to come by these days.But will those headwinds change? And when can hopeful buyers expect rates to drop? Here鈥檚 what you need to know.Current mortgage rate trendsFor much of 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates sat at record lows, hovering under 3% for the first time ever. Since early 2022, though 鈥� when the Federal Reserve started increasing its benchmark rate to fight inflation 鈥� mortgage rates have been trending upward.They gradually rose to 7.08% in November 鈥� at the time, the highest they鈥檇 been in two decades 鈥� and then hovered in the mid-to-high 6% range for most of 2023. Until last week, that is. Per Freddie Mac鈥檚 data, that鈥檚 when the average 30-year mortgage rate hit its highest point in over two decades 鈥� a whopping 7.09%. That鈥檚 up from the record low (2.65%) seen less than three years ago.鈥淩ates are at their highest levels we鈥檝e seen in 23 years,鈥� says Mason Whitehead, branch manager at Churchill Mortgage in Dallas. 鈥淭he market is coming to terms with the reality that rates are going to remain higher for longer than everyone initially hoped.鈥漌hat impacts mortgage rates?Mortgage rates are constantly changing and are influenced by many factors 鈥� namely, the strength of the economy, investment activity, and inflation.鈥淭he general rule is that good news is bad for mortgage rates,鈥� says Sarah Alvarez, vice president of mortgage banking at William Raveis Mortgage. 鈥淪o while it is heartening to see that the jobs in our economy remain busy, it has a buoying effect on rates currently.鈥滷ederal Reserve policy also influences rates and has been a big part in the recent jump in mortgage rates. That鈥檚 because the Federal Reserve voted to increase its benchmark rate 鈥� that rate at which banks borrow money 鈥� 11 times since March 2022 in an attempt to slow inflation. A jump in banks鈥� borrowing rates forces them to increase mortgage rates, too, essentially passing their added costs onto consumers.In fact, in the time since the Fed started increasing its benchmark rate, the average 30-year mortgage rate has climbed from 3.76% to the 7.09% it is today.Keep in mind that the mortgage rate you get on your loan isn鈥檛 necessarily what the average market rate is, either. Your lender will consider your credit, down payment, home price, debt-to-income ratio, and overall financial picture to determine how much you can borrow and at what interest rate. The lender you choose also matters, as rates vary between mortgage companies.TIP: While rates are also up for home equity loans and HELOCs, homeowners who are dissatisfied with their living situation are finding it鈥檚 an excellent time to renovate: Collectively, Americans have about $16 trillion in available home equity right now, which is one of the highest levels on record, according to research by real estate tech company Black Knight. If you can鈥檛 stomach the thought of a mortgage rate upwards of 7%, consider tapping your home equity to make your home more comfortable and increase the value for when you鈥檙e finally ready to sell.When will mortgage rates go down?If you鈥檙e hoping to buy a home soon, you may be sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to drop. But is there any hope of that happening any time soon? According to pros, probably not this year 鈥� but possibly in 2024.鈥淢ortgage rates will likely remain steady or slightly rise over the next six months,鈥� says Robert R. Johnson, chairman of Economic Index Associates and a professor at Creighton University. 鈥淩ight now there is a 30% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's November meeting. As the Fed raises its benchmark rate, mortgage rates will likely rise.鈥漈he good news, Johnson says, is that the Fed will likely halt its rate hikes by the end of the year.鈥淩ates are expected to actually trend lower next year,鈥� Johnson says. 鈥淏y next July, there is a 95% probability that the target Fed funds rate will be lower than it is today. While changes in mortgage rates may slightly lag those Federal Reserve changes, rates appear to be headed lower by mid-year 2024.鈥滼ust how much lower depends on who you ask. Fannie Mae currently projects the average 30-year rate to come in at 5.9% by the end of 2024, while the Mortgage Bankers Association has forecasted a drop to 5%. Both would be improvements over today鈥檚 numbers 鈥� but not anything significant.鈥淚 don鈥檛 think you will see rates drop significantly anytime soon,鈥� Whitehead says. 鈥淔or that to happen, the economy needs to be showing serious weakness, and rates will start to come down in anticipation of the Fed lowering rates to get the economy going again. I don鈥檛 see this scenario in the cards.鈥滺ow to get the best mortgage rate right nowRates may be high right now, but that doesn鈥檛 mean you don鈥檛 have options. If you鈥檙e looking to buy a house, there are several ways to secure a lower rate than that 7%-plus you see in headlines.First, you can buy down your rate. With most mortgage companies, you have the option to pay an upfront fee 鈥� sometimes called 鈥減oints鈥� 鈥� in exchange for a lower interest rate. This rate may be temporary (for one to three years) or for the entire loan term, depending on how much you pay.You can also use a shorter-term or adjustable-rate loan, as these usually come with lower rates than other mortgage programs.Finally, shop around for your mortgage company, as rates vary between lenders. According to Freddie Mac, getting at least four quotes could save you as much as $1,200 in annual interest. In the meantime, there鈥檚 a silver lining to the high-interest rate environment: Rates are also up on CDs and savings accounts, which means it鈥檚 the perfect time to save for a down payment on your next home, whenever the time to move is right.Editorial Disclosure: All articles are prepared by editorial staff and contributors. Opinions expressed therein are solely those of the editorial team and have not been reviewed or approved by any advertiser. The information, including rates and fees, presented in this article is accurate as of the date of the publish. Check the lender鈥檚 website for the most current information.This article was originally published on SFGate.com and reviewed by Lauren Williamson, who serves as Financial and Home Services Editor for the Hearst E-Commerce team. Email her at [email protected].

Aly J. Yale is a contributing writer for Hearst, focusing largely on housing, real estate, and mortgages. She loves demystifying these sometimes complex topics and helping consumers make informed decisions about their finances. In her 15 years as a professional writer and editor, her work has been published in Forbes, Buy Side from the Wall Street Journal, Business Insider, Money, CBS News, US News & World Report, Fortune, and The Miami Herald. She has a bachelor鈥檚 degree in radio-TV-film and news-editorial journalism from the Bob Schieffer College of Communication at Texas Christian University and is a member of the National Association of Real Estate Editors. She lives by her reward-earning credit card and is holding onto her 2.75% mortgage rate for dear life.

Advertisement

Hearst Television participates in various affiliate marketing programs, which means we may get paid commissions on editorially chosen products purchased through our links to retailer sites. This may influence which products we write about and where those products appear on the site, but it does not affect our recommendations or advice, which are grounded in research.

Mobile app users, click here for the best viewing experience.

Mortgage rates have been making headlines lately 鈥� and not in the good way. On Aug. 17, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reached its highest point in 20 years, according to Freddie Mac.

When you throw in the cost of the actual home 鈥� the average sale price now sits at $495,100 鈥� homeownership isn鈥檛 easy to come by these days.

But will those headwinds change? And when can hopeful buyers expect rates to drop? Here鈥檚 what you need to know.

Current mortgage rate trends

For much of 2020 and 2021, sat at record lows, hovering under 3% for the first time ever. Since early 2022, though 鈥� when the started increasing its benchmark rate to fight inflation 鈥� mortgage rates have been trending upward.

They gradually rose to 7.08% in November 鈥� at the time, the highest they鈥檇 been in two decades 鈥� and then hovered in the mid-to-high 6% range for most of 2023.

Until last week, that is.

Per Freddie Mac鈥檚 data, that鈥檚 when the average 30-year mortgage rate hit its highest point in over two decades 鈥� a whopping 7.09%. That鈥檚 up from the record low (2.65%) seen less than three years ago.

鈥淩ates are at their highest levels we鈥檝e seen in 23 years,鈥� says Mason Whitehead, branch manager at Churchill Mortgage in Dallas. 鈥淭he market is coming to terms with the reality that rates are going to remain higher for longer than everyone initially hoped.鈥�

What impacts mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are constantly changing and are influenced by many factors 鈥� namely, the strength of the economy, investment activity, and inflation.

鈥淭he general rule is that good news is bad for mortgage rates,鈥� says Sarah Alvarez, vice president of mortgage banking at William Raveis Mortgage. 鈥淪o while it is heartening to see that the jobs in our economy remain busy, it has a buoying effect on rates currently.鈥�

Federal Reserve policy also influences rates and has been a big part in the recent jump in mortgage rates. That鈥檚 because the Federal Reserve voted to increase its benchmark rate 鈥� that rate at which banks borrow money 鈥� 11 times since March 2022 in an attempt to slow inflation. A jump in banks鈥� borrowing rates forces them to increase mortgage rates, too, essentially passing their added costs onto consumers.

In fact, in the time since the Fed started increasing its benchmark rate, the average 30-year mortgage rate has climbed from 3.76% to the 7.09% it is today.

Keep in mind that the mortgage rate you get on your loan isn鈥檛 necessarily what the average market rate is, either. Your lender will consider your credit, down payment, home price, debt-to-income ratio, and overall financial picture to determine how much you can borrow and at what interest rate. The lender you choose also matters, as rates vary between mortgage companies.

TIP: While rates are also up for , homeowners who are dissatisfied with their living situation are finding it鈥檚 an excellent time to renovate: Collectively, Americans have about $16 trillion in available home equity right now, which is one of the highest levels on record, according to research by real estate tech company . If you can鈥檛 stomach the thought of a mortgage rate upwards of 7%, consider tapping your home equity to make your home more comfortable and for when you鈥檙e finally ready to sell.

When will mortgage rates go down?

If you鈥檙e hoping to buy a home soon, you may be sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to drop. But is there any hope of that happening any time soon? According to pros, probably not this year 鈥� but possibly in 2024.

鈥淢ortgage rates will likely remain steady or slightly rise over the next six months,鈥� says Robert R. Johnson, chairman of Economic Index Associates and a professor at Creighton University. 鈥淩ight now there is a 30% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's November meeting. As the Fed raises its benchmark rate, mortgage rates will likely rise.鈥�

The good news, Johnson says, is that the Fed will likely halt its rate hikes by the end of the year.

鈥淩ates are expected to actually trend lower next year,鈥� Johnson says. 鈥淏y next July, there is a 95% probability that the target Fed funds rate will be lower than it is today. While changes in mortgage rates may slightly lag those Federal Reserve changes, rates appear to be headed lower by mid-year 2024.鈥�

Just how much lower depends on who you ask. Fannie Mae currently projects the average 30-year rate to come in at 5.9% by the end of 2024, while the Mortgage Bankers Association has forecasted a drop to 5%.

Both would be improvements over today鈥檚 numbers 鈥� but not anything significant.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think you will see rates drop significantly anytime soon,鈥� Whitehead says. 鈥淔or that to happen, the economy needs to be showing serious weakness, and rates will start to come down in anticipation of the Fed lowering rates to get the economy going again. I don鈥檛 see this scenario in the cards.鈥�

How to get the best mortgage rate right now

Rates may be high right now, but that doesn鈥檛 mean you don鈥檛 have options. If you鈥檙e looking to buy a house, there are several ways to secure a than that 7%-plus you see in headlines.

First, you can buy down your rate. With most mortgage companies, you have the option to pay an upfront fee 鈥� sometimes called 鈥溾� 鈥� in exchange for a lower interest rate. This rate may be temporary (for one to three years) or for the entire loan term, depending on how much you pay.

You can also use a shorter-term or , as these usually come with lower rates than other mortgage programs.

Finally, shop around for your mortgage company, as rates vary between lenders. According to Freddie Mac, getting at least four quotes could save you as much as $1,200 in annual interest.

In the meantime, there鈥檚 a silver lining to the high-interest rate environment: Rates are also up on CDs and savings accounts, which means it鈥檚 the perfect time to save for a , whenever the time to move is right.

Editorial Disclosure: All articles are prepared by editorial staff and contributors. Opinions expressed therein are solely those of the editorial team and have not been reviewed or approved by any advertiser. The information, including rates and fees, presented in this article is accurate as of the date of the publish. Check the lender鈥檚 website for the most current information.

This article was originally published on and reviewed by Lauren Williamson, who serves as Financial and Home Services Editor for the Hearst E-Commerce team. Email her at [email protected].