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HI EVERYBODY. I’M BEN SIMMONEAU AND I’M MARIA STEPHANOS. IT’S NOT JUST OUR MARKET BUT THAT GLOBAL MARKET IS UNSTEADY. LET’S SEE HOW WALL STREET IS ENDING. THE DAY. RIGHT NOW THE DOW JONES IS FINISHING ABOUT A THOUSAND POINTS DOWN THE NUMBERS ARE STILL FLUCTUATING AS THOSE FINAL NUMBERS COME IN. IT DID TUMBLE BY MORE THAN 1200 POINTS WHEN IT OPENED THIS MORNING. IT IMPROVED AS THE MORNING WENT ON BUT SLIPPED RIGHT BACK TO OPENING LOWS THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE BIG QUESTION WHAT DOES THE MARKET MEAN FOR ALL OF US? MICHAEL ARMSTRONG FROM ARMSTRONG ADVISORY GROUP HERE IN NEEDHAM JOINS ME NOW. THANKS FOR YOUR TIME. ALL RIGHT. SO THE INVESTORS ARE WORRIED. WALL STREET’S WORRIED THAT THE FED HAS WAITED TOO LONG TO START CUTTING RATES. AND THIS HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE US. WHY ARE THEY SO CONCERNED ABOUT THE JOBS REPORT? WELL, I MEAN, FIRST AND FOREMOST, 4.3% UNEMPLOYMENT, WHICH IS WHAT THE MOST RECENT JOB REPORT INDICATED IS NOT A HUGELY HIGH RATE OF IT’S STILL PRETTY LOW. IT’S STILL FAIRLY LOW ON A HISTORICAL BASIS. WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT IS THE TREND, AND THE TREND HAS BEEN UPWARDS. SPECIFICALLY JULY OF LAST YEAR, WE HIT A 3.5% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. WE’RE NOW 8/10 OF A PERCENT HIGHER. AND THE QUESTION IS, IS THAT TREND LINE INDICATIVE OF A RECESSION? AND THERE’S A, YOU KNOW, FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT HISTORICAL SOM RULE THAT TOOK PLACE ON FRIDAY INDICATING RECESSIONS IN THE PAST. THEY SAID IF YOU’RE UP BY MORE THAN HALF A POINT IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, YOU HAVE REASON TO WORRY EFFECTIVELY. YEAH, HALF MONTH INCREASE IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OVER A 12 MONTH PERIOD IS CAUSE FOR RECESSION AND HISTORICALLY, ALL RIGHT. THERE’S NO FED MEETING IN AUGUST. SO THE EARLIEST THEY COULD TAKE ACTION NOW IS SEPTEMBER. BARRING SOME EMERGENCY RATE CUT. DO YOU THINK THAT’S ON THE TABLE GIVEN WHAT WE’VE SEEN, NOT JUST HERE BUT IN ASIA AND IN EUROPE THIS MORNING? OR WOULD THAT ONLY MAKE THE MARKET MORE JITTERY? YOU KNOW, I GOT TO TELL YOU NOTHING ABOUT THIS ECONOMY, RIGHT NOW, IN MY OPINION, SPEAKS TO AN EMERGENCY RATE CUT. RIGHT. YOU THINK ABOUT THE OTHER TIMES WHERE THEY’VE HAD TO DO THAT. YOU KNOW, THE COLLAPSE DURING MARCH OF 2020 ZERO EIGHT, WHEN BANKS WERE FAILING LEFT, RIGHT AND CENTER. THIS DOESN’T FEEL LIKE THAT MOMENT. COULD THAT CHANGE? YEAH. BUT TO YOUR POINT, IT’S AN EMERGENCY RATE CUT. IS TODAY AN EMERGENCY BASED ON THE STOCK MARKET THAT’S FALLEN? WHAT, 8.5% FROM ITS ALL TIME HIGH. THAT’S NOT EMERGENCY IN MY OPINION. SO LAST QUESTION I KNOW YOUR ADVICE GENERALLY IS DO NOTHING IN THESE KINDS OF SCENARIOS WHERE WE DUE FOR A CORRECTION. THE MARKET HAD A PRETTY GOOD RUN OVER THE LAST SIX MONTHS TO A YEAR. YEAH. I MEAN, ARGUABLY THE LEVEL OF LACK OF VOLATILITY THAT WE SAW IN 2023 WAS ABNORMALLY LOW. MARKETS THE S&P 500 SINCE THE 1920S, 94% OF CALENDAR YEARS EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A 5% MARKET DROP, WHICH IS WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW. SO I THINK THE BIG QUESTION THAT I ALWAYS TELL PEOPLE TO ASK THEMSELVES IS, HAVE YOU PREPARED FOR A MOMENT LIKE THIS? HAVE YOU THOUGHT ABOUT WHAT WOULD HAPPEN TO YOUR PORTFOLIO IN A MOMENT LIKE THIS? AND IF NOT, THAT’S A REASON TO TAKE A SECOND LOOK AT YOUR PORTFOLIO.