As Ida arrives, New Orleans veteran meteorologist reflects on Hurricane Katrina 16 years later
It has been 16 years since Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast.
Hurricane Katrina made landfall on Aug. 29, 2005, causing extensive damage along the Mississippi Gulf Coast and in New Orleans.
It's amazing how all of the ingredients came together during the summer of 2005 to create Hurricane Katrina. It really was just plain bad luck.
Video above: Sister station WDSU's Chief Meteorologist Margaret Orr compares Hurricane Ida with past devastating storms, including Hurricane Katrina
Katrina did not do what it was supposed to do.
The storm was supposed to move quickly due-west over lower Florida then northeast toward the Florida Panhandle. Below is the National Hurricane Center鈥檚 forecast track for Friday morning Aug. 26, 2005.
It all started with tropical depression No. 10 in mid-August. It wasn鈥檛 much. Strong upper-level winds tore it apart just east of Barbados.
But the mid-level circulation survived and continued west.
Meanwhile, a tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa, tracked across the Atlantic Ocean and merged with that mid-level circulation on Aug. 19.
It moved into a perfect environment with warm water and no wind shear. Tropical Depression No. 12 formed Tuesday, Aug. 23, 175 miles southeast of Nassau in the Bahamas.
By 10 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 24: Katrina was born, the 11th tropical storm of the season about 65 miles southeast of Nassau. The forecast: landfall in south Florida as a hurricane and then north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Twenty-four hours later, Katrina was moving toward south Florida. But now models did not agree where it was going after that.
The official forecast: the Florida Panhandle. That meant that New Orleans was still on the west side. If you have to choose a side, the west side is the best side. The east side is the side with tornadoes and storm surge.
Thursday, 4 p.m.: Katrina became the fifth hurricane of the season. It was a Category 1 hurricane, two hours before making landfall near Hallandale Beach, Florida, and moved right over the National Hurricane Center鈥檚 office.
The problem: Even though Katrina was over land, it did not die down much. Land interaction causes a hurricane to diminish, but a lot of its circulation was still over warm water. Katrina鈥檚 intensity only dropped to 70 mph.
By 10 p.m. Thursday night, the NHC forecast Katrina to become a major hurricane within three days in the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Friday, Aug. 26: Katrina moved into the Gulf of Mexico, hit the warm water and within two hours, was a hurricane again. Water temperatures in the Gulf were in the upper 80s to 90.
But that isn't what caused Katrina's rapid intensification. It was the warm Gulf Loop 鈥� a current of deep, warm water. Katrina hit the warm water and went from 75 mph to 110 mph in 24 hours.
Bad news Friday afternoon: All the forecast models shifted Katrina toward southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. High pressure was building off the east coast of Florida.
Steering currents around high pressure are clockwise. Katrina was forecast to move as a Category 4 hurricane.
Katrina was in a perfect environment. It really had all the ingredients to become a monster along the Gulf Coast. It was over the warm Gulf Loop with no strong winds aloft. It was a perfect heat engine with winds flowing in, up and out.
The entire Gulf of Mexico was now circulating around Katrina. It intensified.
Katrina became a Category 3 hurricane Saturday morning with winds of 115 mph, 365 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The NHC said there was the potential for Katrina to become a Category 5.
Saturday, Aug. 27, 10 a.m.: The National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch. That day Katrina鈥檚 eye-wall began to erode and another outer eye-wall began to form. This is called eye-wall replacement and often a storm will normally decrease in strength, but Katrina did not, instead it doubled in size.
Its tropical force winds now extended out 140 miles from the center.
Saturday 6 p.m.: The new eye-wall began to contract. That鈥檚 like a spinning ballerina putting her hands to her sides 鈥� she goes faster.
Katrina got stronger and went through another rapid intensification. It went from a Category 3 to a Category 5 in less than 12 hours. It went from 115 mph to 167 mph from midnight through 6 a.m. Sunday.
Katrina was forecast to make landfall at 10 a.m. Sunday in southeast Louisiana or the Mississippi coast. Paul Trotter, the meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service in Slidell, Louisiana, said Katrina could rival the intensity of Hurricane Camille.
Sunday before landfall, Trotter put out an ominous statement. He described Katrina as "a most powerful hurricane with unprecedented strength, rivaling the intensity of Hurricane Camille of 1969."
"..DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH... RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!"
Unfortunately, the NWS forecast office was absolutely correct.
Noon Sunday, Aug. 28: Katrina reached her peak 170 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River with winds hitting 175 mph and pressure of 902 MB. That made her the fourth-most intense hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin, later surpassed by Rita and Wilma.
Late Sunday, Katrina began to go through another eye-wall replacement. This time, it was a good thing. Instead of intensifying, the storm diminished in intensity.
Around 5:30 a.m. Monday, Aug. 29, the NWS issued a tornado warning for Katrina鈥檚 eye-wall: "Treat these extreme winds as if a tornado was approaching," the warning said.
The only problem: The warning said to seek safe shelter on the lowest floor in an interior room, which would have been deadly. This was in an area that was dealing with a major storm surge.
Katrina made landfall at 6:10 a.m. Monday at Buras, Louisiana, with winds of 125 mph. It鈥檚 estimated the storm surge was 15 to 19 feet from New Orleans East to St. Bernard and Plaquemines parishes.
The storm surge was 10 to 14 feet in New Orleans and along the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain. Five to 10 feet in the west portion of Lake Pontchartrain. Twelve to 16 feet from Slidell to Mandeville.
Of course, the highest surge was to the right of the center of Katrina, which was the Mississippi Gulf Coast.
Katrina made her last landfall near the Louisiana-Mississippi border with winds of 120 mph and a pressure of 928 MB. It created a storm surge of 24 to 28 feet, 20 miles wide, that moved inland 6 miles and in the bays and rivers 12 miles.
The highest-water mark was 27.8 feet at Pass Christian, Mississippi.
After Katrina, the NHC retired the name from the list of hurricane names.
Sixteen years later, New Orleans has become a stronger city. However, the threat of tropical weather remains.